Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Buffett and Soros Talk About Recession and Oil Boom

Warren Buffett sees US already in recession, says it will last long. George Soros: Oil boom is increasingly speculative

Warren Buffett, whose business and investment acumen has made him one of the world's wealthiest men, was quoted in an interview published Sunday as saying the U.S. economy is already in a recession.

Asked by Germany's Der Spiegel weekly whether he thinks the U.S. could still avoid a recession, he said that as far as the average person is concerned, it is already here. "I believe that we are already in a recession," Buffet was quoted as saying. "Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. ... But people are already feeling the effects of a recession. It will be deeper and longer than what many think," he added.

The 77-year-old chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. gave the interview while he was in Europe for what he called a "deferred shopping tour," looking for possible acquisitions.

Omaha-based Berkshire has about $35 billion in cash and is looking to invest. Berkshire's subsidiaries include insurance, clothing, furniture, natural gas, corporate jet and candy companies. Berkshire also has major investments in such companies as Coca-Cola Co. and Anheuser-Busch Cos.

In the meanwhile, soaring oil prices are increasingly the result of speculation, financier George Soros said in an interview published Monday.

The billionaire investor said the money pouring into the oil market increasingly had the look of a bubble, but that it would not burst until both the United States and Britain were knocked into a recession. "Speculation ... is increasingly affecting the price," Soros was quoted as saying by The Daily Telegraph. "The price has this parabolic shape that is characteristic of bubbles."

But the cost of oil -- which briefly reached new record highs of more than $135 a barrel in trading Thursday -- was unlikely to fall dramatically until the U.S. and Britain economies began contracting, the paper quoted Soros as saying.

Soros has frequently been a voice of gloom and doom as the U.S. economy slows amid a wrenching housing crisis and tightening credit. But the pessimism hasn't stopped his fund from making money. According to Institutional Investor's Alpha Magazine, the Quantum Endowment Fund -- which Soros no longer manages -- made $2.9 billion last year with returns of over 30 percent.

Soros has been promoting a new book, "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis and What It Means." He has urged regulators to move more aggressively to improve market oversight to curb risks from excessive reliance on debt for financial speculation.

1 comment:

SBVOR said...

Notorious activist for the Democratic Party (and, therefore, media darling), Warren Buffet, continues to pimp for an imaginary recession.

Imaginary? Yep! Even Buffett admits that his imaginary recession is:

“not [a recession] in the sense as defined by economists”

Rather, the #1 Democratic cheer leader for the imaginary recession declared it’s all about how people are “feeling”. Well, DUH! The freaking media have been ramming this doom and gloom FICTION down their throats for at least the last six months! It’s no wonder the naïve little lemmings are now “feeling” like they’re in a recession (when even Buffett himself admits they’re NOT).

The “report” goes on to note:

“Omaha-based Berkshire has about $35 billion in cash and is looking to invest.”

Is Buffett looking to drive the markets down in search of the value plays he is known for? I would not presume to know.

Remember, even The San Francisco Chronicle has already debunked Buffett once.

Also recall, Buffett freely admits that he:

“never made any money out of economic forecasting”

Meantime, the professionals whose income depends upon accurate economic forecasts, continue to forecast economic growth in every quarter of 2008.

It is increasingly unlikely that we are currently in a recession or that we will be at any point in 2008:
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The Recession of 2008 That Wasn’t?
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